U.S. jobs market growth slowed considerably not just last month, but in May and June as well, likely giving more fuel to those calling for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Nonfarm payrolls rose 73,000 in July, according to a Friday morning report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That’s up from 14,000 in June, but that 14,000 was revised sharply lower from an originally reported 147,000. Economist forecasts for July were 110,000.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% versus 4.2% expected and 4.1% in June.
In addition to the big downward revision to June, May’s originally reported 144,000 job growth was revised down to just 19,000.
Taken together, job growth for the May-July period averaged only about 35,000 per month. It’s the weakest pace of hiring since the beginning of the Covid pandemic in 2020, according to Bloomberg’s Matthew Boes.
In the midst of sharp overnight losses, the price of bitcoin
rose modestly to $115,800 in the minutes following the report.
The reactions in bonds and the dollar are far stronger. The 10-year Treasury yield has tumbled 10 basis points to 4.30% and the greenback is lower by nearly 1% versus the euro and the yen.
The Federal Reserve earlier this week left its benchmark fed funds rate range steady at 4.25-4.50%, as expected. Chairman Jerome Powell, however, delivered a hawkish message in his post-meeting press conference, throwing into question what had been a developing consensus that the central bank would trim interest rates at its next meeting in September.
The odds of a rate cut at the September have subsequently dipped to around 40% versus 75% just a month earlier, according to CME FedWatch. It’s risen back to 55% in the minutes following the fresh data.
This morning’s jobs report is likely to give weaken Powell’s hand as he challenges not just President Trump’s consistent calls for lower interest rates, but now at least two Fed governors – Chris Waller and Michelle Bowman — who earlier this week voted to cut the fed funds rate.
